By: Cali Caraale
Somalilanders are an optimistic lot. They have been waiting for recognition from the international community for almost twenty years without success yet not once have they doubted that their holy grail is just round the corner; that Africa, America, Britain Ethiopia or perhaps even Israel will see the justice of their cause and award them the recognition they believe they richly deserve.
Watching Europe and America recognise over twenty new nations in Europe and Eurasia during the same period they were struggling for the same right does not seem to dim their cheery expectation that their day will come too. Being resolutely ignored and on occasion deliberately humiliated by all regional and international institutions is dismissed as mere temporary impediments on their historic journey to ultimate glory.
One can only admire their naïve convictions but there is a terrible truth Somalilanders must one day wake up and face: they are not going to be recognised any time soon and perhaps never will be. Not by Europe loth to have yet another begging-bowl stretching African non-state calling on their recession depleted foreign aid packages. Not by America whose African policy is currently shaped by a cabal of African-Americans brought up on the romantic notions of Negritude and Pan-Africanism and who consider any further breaking up of `big village mother Africa’ as tantamount to racial treachery.
And they are certainly not going to be recognised by dictatorial Arab nations viscerally opposed to any form of geopolitical change in their region lest it gives their restless populations unwanted ideas. Somalilanders dillydallying with that tiresome Western stuff called democracy does not help matters at all.
And forget the AU members, unless, perhaps, Somalilanders could muster a slush fund to grease the palms of those eager, smiley lawmakers across the continent who are open to negotiations on all affairs, for the right price. Somaliland has no access to such wealth at this stage; partially because they are forced by lack of recognition to spend most of their meagre resources on maintaining an oversize army in order to survive in this bad neighbourhood. Analysts in Hargeisa, the capital like to point out if Somalia were to attack Somaliland tomorrow as it did in the late 80s it will not be seen as a foreign invasion but as a civil war or even, incredibly, a Nation State justifiably ‘pacifying’ a rogue region.
And finally to kill off any chance of this desert entity ever getting on a world map, they have managed to accumulate an extraordinarily diverse collection of enemies determined to smother the place to death before it gets born. Egypt is one such enemy. Cairo believes that a strong, united Somalia is essential element in its biblical, existential struggle with Ethiopia over the life-giving waters of the Nile. Cairo is completely deluded as usual (Modern Egypt has a history of bad analysis, planning and strategy on regional matters) because Somaliland will never be part of Somalia again but the Mubarak regime still issues telling statements about ‘the sovereignty…and territorial integrity’ of Somalia every time the issue of Somaliland is raised by sympathisers in the AU, UN or the Arab League.
Saudi Arabia is equally hostile to the very idea of a free, democratic, secular little new nation across its red sea waters. The UN bureaucracy is so hostile to the place it even refuses to mention its name.
All of this rule out any chance of recognition unless there are tectonic, miraculous political sea changes in the area. Somalilanders may still hope but miracles only occur in ancient religious tales not in cold, modern-day political realities. They need to face this awful truth not matter how painful and spend their energies on ways of living without recognition rather than hankering after its mirage.
(Next time: Ways of surviving in State of non-recognition)
By: Cali Caraale
carraale@hotmail.co.uk
http://alturl.com/6skaq
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